2011年10月26日星期三

Experts debate eurozone options

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2 October 2011 Last updated at 00:06 GMT A number of ideas are reportedly being discussed to tackle the eurozone debt crisis.

These include a 50% write-down of Greece's government debts, strengthening big European banks that could be hit by any defaults by highly indebted governments, and boosting the size of the eurozone bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).

Here, eight economists discuss what they think will happen and what they think needs to happen in the eurozone.

Vicky Pryce

Senior managing director of economics at FTI Consulting and former UK government adviser

Last week's events, with all the market volatility, were a serious wake-up call to all international institutions and to policymakers. I think they've understood it and institutions will be set up in such a way to ensure future crises should be averted.

I think we will see a haircut on Greek bonds, a recapitalisation programme for banks and an increase in the size of the bailout fund - but you need all these things, they need to be part of a package.

Even with that, in a year's time Europe will still be pretty weak because the long-term problems will still be there - low growth and unsustainable debt.

What we have seen for Greece will have to happen elsewhere. Haircuts are inevitable for other countries too.

They have to rethink how you achieve faster growth in Europe. If you don't get back to growth then the debt problems will remain.

The next thing that needs to be looked at seriously is issuing eurobonds. That may well be what we need in the longer term to lead us back to growth.

Director, Centre for European Policy Studies

We believe a market-based approach is needed to reduce Greece's debt.

The EFSF should offer holders of Greek debt an exchange into EFSF paper at the current market price. Banks would be forced in the context of the ongoing stress tests to write down holdings in their banking book and thus have an incentive to accept the offer.

More widely, we argue that the EFSF needs to be restructured.

You cannot just increase its size because if Italy or Spain were to step out as a guarantor, that would leave France, for instance, with a share of 40%, which it could not sustain and would lose its triple-A credit rating.

It cannot work as intended, but if it were re-registered as a bank, which would give it access to potentially unlimited ECB refinancing in case of emergency, the general breakdown in confidence could be stopped while leaving the management of public debt under the supervision of finance ministers.

Iain Begg

Professorial research fellow, the European Institute of the London School of Economics. Currently researching EU economic policy, governance and policy co-ordination under European Monetary Union

The one obvious thing leaders should do would be to decide rapidly on a way of moving towards genuine eurobonds.

The Germans, manifestly, are very hostile to the idea, but it is a development that seems to have so many advantages that it ought to be pursued.

The trick will be to find a formula that deals with the "moral hazard" objections by introducing well-judged conditionality.

Economist at Open Europe, an independent think tank campaigning for reform of the EU

Greece obviously needs to restructure. It's looking at write-downs of 50% - that's a necessary step. It finally looks like the eurozone leaders are coming round to that.

But if it's not combined with recapitalising banks and other economic reforms it won't work.

In terms of the write-downs, banks will be able to absorb the hit because they should have been preparing for it for the last year. I think it would be necessary to use the EFSF to help recapitalise these banks and provide a backstop.

At the moment there's no clear pan-European mechanism for dealing with winding down a cross-border bank. I think we need a policy for what happens in this situation, a huge policy that needs to be detailed.

They also have to look at the different needs of the eurozone - for instance, interest rates in Germany would be very different to those in Greece. Those imbalances aren't going to go away.

George Magnus in a green shirt

Senior Economic Adviser, UBS Investment Bank

What I think the Europeans will choose to do is leverage the capital of the EFSF (currently 440bn euros) up by borrowing 5-10 times that from the market. They would then have the capacity to go and buy all of the sickly sovereign bonds that the banks are sitting on and swap them for bonds they themselves will issue.

I don't think it would be successful. In the short run it would probably be a bit of a tonic for bank stock prices and equity markets, but it doesn't do anything to solve the problem of the euro crisis at all.

I think you need a combination of three things.

These are: a restructuring template for Greece's debt with long gross periods - three years for the interest payment and 5-10 years for the principal repayment. That template might then have to be used for other countries.

Then, to stop Greek banks collapsing, you have to support the Greek banking system. And to stop banking contagion spreading to the likes of Italy and Spain, you need a banking recapitalisation programme.

And if the ECB said they were prepared to stand by and buy any amount of Spanish and Italian bonds, then we'd raise three cheers.

Anything that stops short of cleansing the European banking system will not be enough.

Chairman and chief economist, Lombard Street Research

The problem is that the Club Med countries - Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal - are not competitive. Even if they agree to writing down Greek debts and increasing the EFSF, that will only be successful in postponing the issue for a few more months. It won't stop debt going up.

For the euro to survive the only solution is for the Club Med countries to leave the single currency. I think Ireland could stay in the euro as, although it's banking system is a mess, it is cost competitive - exports make up most of its GDP - so it is possible to turn the economy round quite fast.

Holger Schmieding

Former economist at Merrill Lynch/Bank of America, now chief economist at Berenberg Bank

The probability that we will get a significant write-down of Greek debt as part of an orderly programme, with an immediate recapitalisation of Greek banks, and with further European support for Greece, has risen substantially.

The key question in all this is nothing to do with Greece - but whether upon granting Greece debt relief we can protect Italy from the market panic and prevent contagion.

The risk Greece will default is now above 50%. But Greece is highly likely to stay in the euro come what may.

I would like to see the ECB commit to being the ultimate backstop - if things get really ugly the ECB should buy more government bonds.

Professor of economics at the Graduate Institute in Geneva, specialises in monetary integration, monetary policy and financial crisis

Discussions about the EFSF are irrelevant. It shows policymakers haven't zeroed in on the crisis and what to do about it. The EFSF currently has 440bn euros. The amount we're talking about for Italy and Spain, as well as Greece, Portugal and Ireland could be 3.5 trillion euros.

I think that Greece will inevitably default, and I believe that Italy too will have to default, but I don't see a willingness in policymakers to accept that.

The ECB is the only institution that can stop the crisis. My solution is for the ECB to issue a partial guarantee on the existing public debts of eurozone governments, of say, up to 60% of GDP. It would allow governments to default but would create a backstop.


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2011年10月25日星期二

Supergroup facing £9m profit hit

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5 October 2011 Last updated at 15:59 GMT Continue reading the main story Shares in clothing firm Supergroup have fallen by a quarter after it said problems at a distribution warehouse would hit profits by between £6m and £9m.

The company behind the Superdry brand said the problems had seen a "reduction both in the amount of stock and range of sizes reaching its UK stores".

The firm said the problems centred on an upgrade to its Gloucester warehouse.

Supergroup's shares ended the day 30% lower at £7.07.

In a management statement, the firm said it estimated "the total cost of this isolated event, including the additional temporary warehousing capability and resulting lost sales will impact the current year's profitability by between £6m and £9m".

Supergroup, which is based in Cheltenham, also said its stock levels would increase by £2m.

Analysts believe the problem will add to a range of difficult factors facing the firm, including the tough consumer climate, a weak August and the unseasonably warm September weather discouraging the purchase of autumn clothes.

In July, Supergroup said that profits for the year to May had jumped by 110% to £47.3m.

Supergroup floated its shares on the London Stock Exchange in March 2010, at a price of £5 per share.


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HP completes buy-out of Autonomy

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3 October 2011 Last updated at 21:51 GMT Continue reading the main story Hewlett-Packard has completed the $12bn (£7.8bn) buy-out of UK software firm Autonomy, despite the departure of the man who initiated it.

Leo Apotheker was replaced as HP chief executive last month amid falling sales and a share price collapse.

The Autonomy deal was part of a massive overhaul of the troubled US computer giant unveiled by Mr Apotheker.

But plans to spin off its core PC business received a thumbs down from the market.

HP's shares have fallen 47% this year, making it one of the worst performers in the Dow Jones index of leading US companies.

The purchase price for Autonomy was also widely criticised by market analysts as too high, but British takeover rules made it almost impossible to cancel the bid.

Meg Whitman, the former head of eBay who replaced Mr Apotheker, said shortly after her appointment that the deal would still go ahead.

The UK firm's head, Mike Lynch, later got into a colourful spat with HP rival Oracle, who claimed that Mr Lynch had sought a rival bid from them and been declined.

Oracle's chief executive Larry Ellison described the asking price as "absurdly high".

HP's shares closed 1.1% lower on Monday, outperforming the wider market.


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Senate currency bill 'dangerous'

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5 October 2011 Last updated at 05:12 GMT John Boehner with colleagues behind him House Speaker Boehner has said taking action against China's currency peg is beyond the scope of Congress A top US Republican has criticised a Senate bill that could penalise China for alleged currency undervaluation.

The Senate voted on Monday by 79-19 to debate legislation that could make it easier to impose penalties against US trade partners.

House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner said it was "pretty dangerous" for Congress to tell other countries how to run their monetary policy.

Beijing said it "firmly opposed" the measure.

The bill would give the US government the power to add tariffs to goods imported from countries deemed to be undervaluing their currencies to boost exports.

The proposed law does not mention China by name, but many US politicians accused China of subsidising exports by holding down the value of the yuan, costing US jobs.

'Unfair trade practices'

Analysts expressed concern that the bill could damage relations with China, which is the biggest holder of US debt, at a time when the American economy is still fragile.

Continue reading the main story Use the dropdown for easy-to-understand explanations of key financial terms:AAA-rating GO The best credit rating that can be given to a borrower's debts, indicating that the risk of borrowing defaulting is miniscule.And Mr Boehner said: "This is well beyond what Congress ought to be doing, and while I've got concerns about how the Chinese have dealt with their currency, I'm not sure this is the way to fix it."

But he came under attack from Democrats over his opposition to the Senate bill, which has bipartisan support in Congress.

"For some inexplicable reason, the Republican leadership in the House is siding with the Chinese government. This is not the time to go soft on Beijing," said Democratic Senator Charles Schumer.

Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid meanwhile said: "We can't ignore blatant, unfair trade practices that put American workers at a disadvantage."

At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that China's yuan policy hindered a more balanced growth path.

Unhappy China

Beijing has expressed "regret" over the measure. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said it "seriously interferes with Sino-US trade ties".

"The yuan exchange rate is not the main reason for the Sino-US trade imbalance," said the Chinese central bank, the People's Bank of China.

Analysts have argued that the Chinese currency could be undervalued by as much as 20-40% in relation to the US dollar.

The effect of such a policy would make Chinese goods cheaper in the US, and US goods more expensive in China.

White House spokesman Jay Carney said the Obama administration was still reviewing the currency bill.

The Senate could vote on the bill later in the week.


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Morning business round-up

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6 October 2011 Last updated at 11:04 GMT What made the business news in Asia and Europe this morning? Here's our daily business round-up:

Continue reading the main story Last Updated at 11:57 GMT

Market indexCurrent valueTrendVariation% variationStock markets across Europe have been boosted by expectations that EU leaders are about to act to ease the debt crisis.

The main markets in London, Frankfurt and Paris were about 2% up, after Hong Kong closed 5.6% higher.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said in a television interview that there were plans for co-ordinated action to recapitalise banks.

In the UK, the Bank of England has said it will inject a further £75bn into the UK economy through quantitative easing (QE).

The Bank has already pumped £200bn into the economy by buying assets such as government bonds, in an attempt to boost lending by commercial banks.

But this is the first time it has added to its QE programme since 2009. There have been recent calls for it to step in again to aid the fragile recovery.

The Bank also held interest rates at the record low of 0.5%.

European aircraft maker Airbus has struck a deal worth $9.5bn (£6.2bn) with Australia's Qantas for 110 jets.

The order, said by Qantas to be the country's single largest aircraft purchase by units, will underpin the airline's expansion into Asia.

Qantas, which is launching a low-cost and a premium airline in Asia, is buying 78 Airbus 320neos and 32 A320s.

Eleswhere in Asia, there are reports that many Chinese private sector enterprises are facing bankruptcy because of credit tightening and an explosion in informal lending.

In the eastern city of Wenzhou, one-fifth of the city's 360,000 small and mid-sized businesses have stopped operating due to cash shortages, China's official news agency Xinhua reported on Thursday.

Business headlines

And shares of Citic Securities have fallen on their debut at the Hong Kong stock exchange as market volatility continues to dent investor sentiment.

Its shares fell by as much as 10% in early trade to HK$11.90 from an offer price of HK$13.30.

Citic securities, China's largest listed brokerage had sold 995.3m shares raising HK$13.2bn ($1.7bn, £1.1bn).

Many Chinese firms have recently cancelled or postponed their proposed listing on the exchange.

Meanwhile, the state of the UK housing market has been under scrutiny. House prices are "lacking genuine direction", according to the Halifax, as it reported a 0.5% fall in values in September compared with August.

Prices were down 2.3% from a year ago, leaving the average home in the UK worth £161,132 ($249,560), the lender said.

The latest edition of Business Daily from the BBC World Service looks at the legacy of Steve Jobs, founder of Apple Computers, who died on Wednesday aged 56.


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Italy's credit rating is slashed

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5 October 2011 Last updated at 06:40 GMT Silvio Berlusconi The Italian Prime Minister said he had been expecting the announcement from Moody's The Italian government's credit rating has been slashed by Moody's from Aa2 to A2 with a negative outlook.

The ratings agency blamed a "material increase in long-term funding risks for the euro area", due to lost confidence in eurozone government debts.

Despite Rome's low current borrowing needs, and low private-sector debt levels in Italy, Moody's said market sentiment had turned against the euro.

Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said the decision was expected.

"The Italian government is working with the maximum commitment to achieve its budget objectives," said Mr Berlusconi.

He said that a plan to balance the government's budget by 2013 had been approved by the European Commission.

Sell-off

The initial market reaction to the downgrade was muted.

The news broke half an hour after the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

But after-hours trading in stock market futures suggested that at least one percentage point of a late 4% market rally may have been wiped off.

Asian trading was mixed, with stocks initially surging after a report in the Financial Times that EU finance ministers were considering a plan to recapitalise European banks.

Continue reading the main story
The downgrading by Moody's of Italy's credit rating could not have come at a worse time for the eurozone”

End Quote image of Robert Peston Robert Peston Business editor, BBC News In Japan, stocks on the Nikkei index lost early gains to close down 0.86%. South Korea's main market lost 2.33%. Australian shares ended 1.40% higher.

Stock markets in Hong Kong and mainland China were closed for a holiday.

Oil prices were trading higher in Asia on hopes that efforts by European authorities to contain the eurozone crisis would prevent the world economy from slowing.

Brent crude for November delivery bounced back above $100 a barrel, rising $1.83 to $101.62.

Slow response

Analysts say Italy's downgrade is likely to be followed by similar cuts in the credit rating of Italy's banks, which would put severe pressure on their ability to borrow.

"This downgrade will make it even harder for Italy to borrow," says BBC business editor Robert Peston. "However, that is not the worst of it.

"If Italy is looking like a more risky place to lend, its banks... will find it harder and more expensive to borrow. The [eurozone] banking crisis will be exacerbated."

The rationale for Moody's downgrade will also be worrying for other eurozone governments, such as Spain, whose borrowing costs have also risen like Italy's as markets have lost confidence in their creditworthiness.

Moody's also raised warnings about Italy's growth outlook, citing structural economic problems in Italy, as well as the global economic slowdown.

Another problem noted by the rating agency was what it called political and economic "implementation risks".

"The question is, if [eurozone governments] will move fast enough... to really put in place a credible solution," says Robert Peston.

Continue reading the main story Use the dropdown for easy-to-understand explanations of key financial terms:AAA-rating GO The best credit rating that can be given to a borrower's debts, indicating that the risk of borrowing defaulting is miniscule.An expansion of the eurozone's bailout fund already approved by the euro's 17 governments in July - which is now seen by markets as inadequate - has still yet to be ratified by all the national parliaments.

The slow political response to the emerging crisis, necessitated by the European Union's institutional set-up, has been criticised by many commentators, including European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.

In hock

However the key issue for Moody's was the change in the market's attitude towards eurozone government debts.

The Italian government has for several years earned more in tax revenues than it spends. However, the government also has a large outstanding debt - equivalent to nearly 120% of GDP.

The government relies heavily on the markets' willingness to relend these debts as they come due, and to lend it the cost of meeting its interest payments.

Moody's said that Italy could be further downgraded to "substantially lower rating levels" if a further deterioration in investor sentiment made it even harder for the country to raise cash from the markets.

Italy's cost of borrowing rose sharply over the summer on market fears that a slowdown in Italian growth could make existing debts unsustainable.

That prompted the European Central Bank to intervene by buying up Italy's debts - a controversial policy in Germany. But despite the ECB's action, Italian borrowing costs have begun to creep up again in recent weeks.


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UK needs eurozone safeguards - PM

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4 October 2011 Last updated at 09:04 GMT David Cameron Mr Cameron says he is a "practical Eurosceptic" David Cameron has said UK interests must be protected should eurozone countries seek closer integration as a result of the debt crisis in Europe.

The prime minister told the BBC it was "logical" that countries using the single currency would move closer to a single economic policy.

But he said the UK and nine other EU states which are not in the eurozone would need "certain safeguards".

The BBC understands UK officials are preparing for such an eventuality.

The BBC's political editor Nick Robinson said the Treasury and Foreign Office were already discussing how to protect British interests, in areas such as the City of London and the single market, should there be a fundamental change in the shape of the EU.

As the eurozone economic crisis shows no sign of abating, some of its 17 members have been talking about greater fiscal union to bolster the single currency in future and support weaker members.

At the same time, Mr Cameron is facing calls from many of his MPs for a fundamental change to the UK's relationship with Europe. Some want the UK to claw back powers from the EU while others are seeking a referendum on the UK's membership.

'Not naive'

The prime minister, who calls himself a "practical eurosceptic", has said the UK must work within the current EU framework to get the best deal for Britain and that any talk of repatriating powers must wait to a later date.

He told the BBC he believed closer co-operation between eurozone members was "necessary" to prevent a repeat of the current crisis and denied he had changed his view, since before the debt crisis began in 2009.

Continue reading the main story
This is not some naive view that they go off on their way and we are intensely relaxed about it”

End Quote David Cameron on the eurozone "I have always argued that the logic of a single currency is more of a single economic policy," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"It is one of the reasons I never wanted to join it.

"As eurozone countries move to co-ordinate more, as I believe they should, those outside the eurozone will need certain safeguards to make sure that what the eurozone countries are agreeing separately does not affect the single market."

He added: "This is not some naive view that they go off on their way and we are intensely relaxed about it. There are safeguards we need and the Liberal Democrats completely agree with that."

Deputy PM Nick Clegg, whose Liberal Democrats are the most pro-European of the three biggest UK parties, has said the eurozone crisis should not be used as a justification to radically alter the UK's relationship with the European Union.

But, with 40% of UK trade going to Europe, Mr Clegg has said the single market - which is supposed to guarantee free movement of goods across Europe - must work more effectively and British firms must be able to compete on a level-playing field.

The deputy prime minister has warned that allowing eurozone states to act against the interests of other EU members would create a "divisive and weaker" Europe.

'Held back'

As EU finance ministers meet in Luxembourg to discuss the crisis, Mr Cameron said it was in the UK's interest that the "fire" in the eurozone was put out as quickly as possible.

"The eurozone crisis is holding back the whole world economy, Britain included," he said. "Clearly the Greek situation needs to be resolved one way or another and extremely quickly."

The future of Europe is not on the official conference agenda and one of Mr Cameron's closest allies has warned party members against obsessing about the issue during the event.

But Nick Robinson said it was the dominant issue for many MPs and party members while the PM's advisers believed the EU could be set for a once-in-a-generation transformation due to the current crisis.

This begged the question whether the UK should seeker a closer or more distant relationship with the EU or leave altogether - a possibility rejected by the government.


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